As we close out the year, the Chittenden County real estate landscape is shifting—but not in the dramatic, headline-grabbing way some expected. Instead, we’re seeing a more balanced, sustainable version of our market emerge. Using November 2025 data from the Northwestern Vermont Board of Realtors, let’s break down what’s really happening with prices, competitiveness, supply, demand, and affordability—and what that means as we head into 2026.
Are Home Prices in Chittenden County Going Down?
The median sales price for November 2025 landed at $500,000, compared to $522,500 last year—a 4% year-over-year dip.
Month-to-month, from October to November, prices stayed fairly flat to slightly down, which is completely typical for late fall in Vermont.
The real story is the five-year trend
Even with this modest softening, prices are still up more than 50% from pre-pandemic levels, when the median hovered in the low- to mid-$300s.
Takeaway:
- This is not a market crash.
- What we’re seeing is a normalizing correction layered on top of several years of extremely strong appreciation.
For more on pricing trends, see our related video:
“Are Homes Less Expensive in the Winter in Vermont?”
Are Homes Still Selling Over Asking in Chittenden County?
To understand competitiveness, we look at Percent of List Price Received.
For November 2025, sellers received 98.8% of their asking price, compared with just over 100% last year.
What this tells us
During 2021 and 2022, buyers were routinely paying 5–10% over asking, often battling through multiple offers. That intensity has cooled—significantly.
Today’s environment:
- Buyers have more room to negotiate
- Sellers must be precise with pricing
- Presentation matters more than ever—staging, repairs, and marketing all move the needle
Homes still sell quickly when priced correctly, but the “list it at any price and watch the offers roll in” era has passed.
Why Has Inventory Increased So Much This Year?
Active inventory ended November at 322 listings, compared to 213 last year—a 50% increase.
That’s a dramatic shift for our region.
Months of Supply is Telling the Same Story
We’re currently at 2.6 months of supply, up from 1.6 months last year.
A balanced market typically sits around 5–6 months.
What this means
- This is still technically a seller-leaning market, but far healthier
- Buyers have more options and slightly more time to make decisions
- Sellers need strong pricing and quality presentation to stand out
Inventory hitting its low point in 2021 and steadily rising since then shows a cooling but not collapsing market.
For more on inventory, check out our blog:
“Unlocking Vermont’s Housing Inventory”
Is Buyer Demand Slowing Down?
Surprisingly—no.
Despite higher inventory, buyer activity remains solid.
Pending sales for November 2025:
- 232 homes under contract
- Up from 197 last year
- An 18% increase in demand year-over-year
Across the five-year trend, this fits our typical seasonal rhythm: busy springs, quieter winters.
The important insight:
Even with more homes on the market, buyers are still writing offers at a healthy pace.
This combination—more supply + steady demand—is what’s creating a more balanced, more predictable 2026 market.
Is Home Affordability Improving in Chittenden County?
Affordability remains one of the biggest challenges for Vermont buyers.
But the latest data shows some relief.
Estimated monthly mortgage payment for November 2025:
- $2,974/month, down from $3,309 last year
- About a 10% improvement
What’s driving this improvement?
- Slightly lower home prices
- Easing mortgage rates from their earlier peak
But zoom out to the five-year trend and payments have nearly doubled since 2019. So while things are easing, the affordability landscape is still tough—especially for first-time buyers.
For sellers:
Today’s buyers are highly payment-sensitive.
Small pricing adjustments or rate shifts can determine whether a buyer can qualify at all.
Want more insight into financing options? Watch:
“First time home buyer VT: What are your options?“
Key Takeaways for November 2025
- Prices: Slight dip year-over-year but still dramatically higher than pre-2020
- Competitiveness: Cooling, but still favoring sellers
- Inventory: Rising sharply, giving buyers more choice
- Demand: Holding strong—buyers haven’t stepped back
- Affordability: Slight improvement from last year, but still historically tight
Planning to Buy or Sell in 2026? Let’s Talk Strategy.
Whether you’re thinking about entering the market in the next 90 days or sometime in 2026, you deserve a clear, calm, data-driven plan. I’d be happy to walk you through how these trends apply to your neighborhood, budget, or goals.
👉 Schedule your personalized 2026 Market Prep Session
👉 Email me at julie@Ridgelinerealestate.com
👉 Or check out more market insights on our YouTube channel @yourvtrealestateaccelerator
